The Role Of A CTA, Commodity Trading Advisor

Today's Commodity Trading Advisor is no longer to be thought of only as a Portfolio Manager. His role has expanded considerably as investment products become more complex.


Commodity Trading Advisor, Genuine Trading Solutions, a registered CTA with the CFTC, says the responsibility today of a CTA is a constantly evolving role in today's market place.

Once upon a time a Commodity Trading Advisor was content to be known as a Portfolio Manager trading commodities and futures for a managed futures fund. There is no question today's investor has become more sophisticated. In response, today's selection of investment products has become ever more complex and varied, the need for the CTA to understand the uses and management of these products becomes even more acute.

So what exactly is the role of today's Commodity Trading Advisor. Certainly trading of derivative products for a managed futures fund continues to be as important as before. A CTA has also become more involved with derivative analytics. This role is essentially focused upon becoming an analyst to structure and analyze the more multi-faceted requirements demanded by hedge funds, pension funds and structured products.

The use of derivative analytics to manage the adverse risk of an equity or bond portfolio brought about by adverse market conditions is critical in preserving asset growth. The uses of hedging to prevent volatility has long been understood by the largest institutions but is now available to the smaller sized company and to the individual investor. No doubt as products continue to evolve so too will the CTA evolve to meet the need of today's professional money manager.

Derivative products are no longer limited to exchange traded commodities futures and options. There continues to be an ever expanding list of over-the-counter derivative products. These are SWAPS. SWAPS and privately transacted products transacted without the use of a recognized exchange. The difficulty is the buyer and seller must find each other to undertake such an arrangement, not always easy. The second problem is no liquidity. There is no one to sell this too should one of the parties wish to terminate the transaction prior to the agreed upon date.

A Commodity Trading Advisor's role is no longer sufficient to be limited to trading. It is now imperative to understand the industry in a new light so to understand the changing investment environment. Analysis now becomes the catalyst to include a value added service to retain customers. This includes structured products, risk management and OTC derivatives. Continuing education has been and continues to be the hallmark of the best in the industry.

Dwayne Strocen is a registered Commodity Trading Advisor specializing in analyzing and hedging Market and Operational Risk using exchange traded and OTC derivatives. Website: http://www.genuineCTA.com.


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Market Risk – Not To Be Ignored or Overlooked

Understanding Market Risk and the solutions available to mitigate or eliminate financial loss in today's global market.


The first of a two part article
Fund managers, whether they be equity or bond traders, know all too well that returns are not simply a result of their asset selection prowess. Many external factors come into play. But what are the issues facing the professional money manager. Management of risk is one of the most important, and not all fund managers analyze their market risk. This is often explained as a lack of education and a failure to understand the mitigating solutions for off-setting risk.

Market risk is defined as "the unexpected financial loss following a market decline due to events out of your control." Stock or bond market volatility or market reversals can be the result of global events happening in far flung corners of the globe. Top analysts and fund managers simply do not have the resources to crystal ball gaze and predict those events.

Examples of several major unexpected events that sent shock waves throughout the financial community have been:

- 1982 Mexican Peso devaluation;
- 1987 stock market crash knows as "Black Monday";
- 1989 USA Savings and Loan Crisis;
- 1998 Russian Ruble devaluation;
- 1998 $125 billion collapse of Hedge Fund Long Term Capital Management;
- 2006 collapse of Hedge Fund Amaranth with losses of $5.85 billion.

In 1994 Bank J.P. Morgan developed a risk metrics model known as Value-At-Risk or VaR. While VaR is considered the industry standard of risk measurement, it has its drawbacks. VaR can measure total dollar value of a funds risk exposure within a certain level of confidence, usually 95 or 99 percent. What it cannot do, is predict when a triggering event will occur or the magnitude of the subsequent fallout. For some company's and funds, a steep decline or protracted recession can be devastating. Even forcing some un-hedged firms into bankruptcy. A triggering event can have a ripple effect forcing people out of work and economies into recession effectively putting more people out of work. No person and no economy is immune.

If you own a mutual fund, chances are your fund is un-hedged. Until recently, mutual fund legislation prevented mutual funds from hedging. Many jurisdictions have repealed this rule however mutual fund managers have been slow or decided to continue with "business as usual". The reason is that most investors of mutual funds are unsophisticated and do not understand the hedging process and may re-deem their money from an investment strategy they do not understand.

Hedge funds on the other hand do not have these restraints. Investors are more sophisticated and are more open to the nature of hedge fund strategies. Some of which are not disclosed due to a fear of piracy by competing hedge fund managers.

Risk reduction solutions are not complicated but do require the services of a professional who understands the process. This is the role of a Commodity Trading Advisor, also known as a CTA. While most CTA's are hedge fund managers, few specialize in risk management analytics. The focus of a risk manager is on the analysis of solutions to reduce or eliminate market and / or operational risk. No matter the role, all Commodity Trading Advisors are specialists in the derivatives market.

The first step is the value at risk calculation to determine a funds risk liability. A risk mitigation strategy known as a hedge is then implemented. After all, identification of one's risk is only beneficial if a solution to off-set that risk is put into place. Hedging requires the use of derivatives, either exchange traded or over-the-counter. These can take many forms. The most commonly used hedging instruments are index futures, interest rate futures, foreign exchange, exchange traded commodities such as Crude Oil, options and SWAPS.

A more detailed explanation of derivatives and hedging will be discussed in our next article. Now that we've identified an easy solution for your market risk worries, the implementation of the right strategy can be as easy as a call to a qualified and registered Commodity Trading Advisor.


Dwayne Strocen is a registered Commodity Trading Advisor specializing in analyzing and hedging Market and Operational Risk using exchange traded and OTC derivatives. Website: http://www.genuineCTA.com.


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Hedging – What Is It, And It’s Uses In Risk Management

Hedging, understanding the benefits of risk management in an enterprise wide solution. Risk management and hedging is a useful tool to reduce market place liability. Here are some tips on its uses.

Second of a two part article
Before I discuss the use of hedging to off-set risk, we need to understand the role and the purpose of hedging. The history of modern futures trading began in Chicago in the early 1800's. Chicago is located at the base of the Great Lakes, close to the farmlands and cattle country of the U.S. Midwest making it a natural center for transportation, distribution and trading of agricultural produce. Gluts and shortages of these products caused chaotic fluctuations in price. This led to the development of a market enabling grain merchants, processors, and agriculture companies to trade in contracts to insulate them from the risk of adverse price change and enable them to hedge.

The first commodity exchange was the creation of the Chicago Board of Trade, CBOT in 1848. Since then, modern derivative products have grown to include more than the agricultural industry. Products include Stock Indices, Interest Rates, Currency, Precious Metals, Oil and Gas, Steel and a host of others. The origins of the commodity and futures exchange was created to support hedging. The role of speculators is beneficial as they add trading volume and important volatility to what would otherwise be a small and illiquid market place.

A bona-fide hedger is someone with an actual product to buy or sell. The hedger establishes an off-setting position on the futures or commodity exchange, thereby instituting a set price for his product. Someone buying a hedge is known as being "Long" or "Taking Delivery". Someone selling a hedge is known as being "Short" or "Making Delivery". These positions known as "Contracts" are legally binding and enforced by the exchange. You can view a complete listing of the worlds different exchanges at: World Exchanges.

Entering your trades either for speculation or hedging is done through your broker or Commodity Trading Advisor. Commodity and Futures exchanges are distinct from Stock Exchanges, although they operate using the same principals. They are regulated by different agencies such as the Commodity Futures Trading Commission who are responsible for regulation of retail brokers in the USA as well as Commodity Trading Advisors who are really Portfolio Managers for derivatives.

Now let's view some real life examples of hedging or mitigation of risk by using exchange traded derivatives.

Example 1: A mutual fund manager has a portfolio valued at $10 million closely resembling the S&P 500 index. The Portfolio Manager believes the economy is worsening with deteriorating corporate returns. The next two to three weeks are reports of quarterly corporate earnings. Until the report exposes which companies have poor earnings, he is concerned of the results from a short term general market correction. Without the privilege of foresight, he is unsure of the magnitude the earnings figures will produce. He now has an exposure to Market Risk.

The manager thinks of his options. The greatest risk is to do nothing, if the market falls as expected, he risks giving up all recent gains. If he sells his portfolio early, he also risks being wrong and missing further rally's. Selling also incurs substantial brokerage fees with additional fees to buy back again later.

Then he realizes a hedge is the best option to mitigate his short term risk. He begins by calling his CTA (Commodity Trading Advisor) and after consultation places an order to sell short the equivalent of $10 million of the S&P 500 index on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange "CME". Now his result is when the market falls as expected, he will off-set any losses in the portfolio with gains from the Index hedge. Should the earnings report be better than expected, and his portfolio continues upward, he will continue making profits.

Two weeks later the fund manager again calls his CTA and closes the hedge by buying back the equivalent number of contracts on the CME. Regardless of the resulting market events, the mutual fund manager was protected during the period of short term volatility. There was no risk to the portfolio.

Example 2: An electronics firm ABC has recently signed an order to deliver $5 million in electronic components of next years model to an overseas retailer located in Europe. These components will be built in 6 months for delivery two months after that. ABC instantly realizes they are exposed to two risks. 1. the rising and volatile price of copper in 6 months may result in losses to the firm. 2. the fluctuation in the currency could easily add to those losses. ABC being a young firm cannot absorb these losses in view of the highly competitive market from others in the field. Losses from this order would result in lay-offs and possibly plant closures.

ABC telephones their CTA and after consultation places an order for two hedges, both for an expiry in 8 months, the date of delivery. Hedge #1 is to buy long $5 million of copper effectively locking in today's price against further price increases. ABC has now eliminated all price risk. The risk of plant closures is greater than the lure of increased profit should copper price fall. After all, ABC is not in the business of speculating on copper prices.

Hedge #2 is to sell short the equivalent of Euro Currency vs US Dollars. Since ABC is effectively accepting EC in payment, a rising US dollar and a weak EC would be detrimental and erode profits further. The result of the hedge is no risk and no surprises to ABC in either copper or currency levels. A risk free transaction and full transparency is the result. In 8 months with the order completed and the customer accepting delivery, ABC notifies the CTA to close the hedge by selling the copper and buying back the Euro Currency contacts.

Many examples exist to demonstrate the mitigation of risk to an institution or financial portfolio. New products are constantly created and available on both over-the counter and exchange traded markets. It would be wise to consult with a qualified Commodity Trading Advisor or broker to discuss the analysis for an on-going risk management solution or a one time only hedge.

Dwayne Strocen is a registered Commodity Trading Advisor specializing in analyzing and hedging Market and Operational Risk using exchange traded and OTC derivatives. Website: http://www.genuineCTA.com.


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Using Technical Analysis To Manage Risk And Maintain Top Quartile Performance

To manage an effective risk management solution requires more than the calculation of VaR. Ultimately a successful risk management program requires the execution of an effective hedge. Technical analysis is a vital element of this strategy.


Recent market reversals brought about by the Sub-Prime mortgage melt down is clearly a significant market correcting event. No matter if you work in the risk department of a large bank with many employees or a small fund of funds as co-manager, you share the same basic concerns regarding the management of your portfolio(s)

1. how to maintain top quartile performance;
2. how to protect assets in times of economic uncertainty;
3. how to expand business reputation to attract new client assets;

It remains common in the financial industry to hear experienced Portfolio Managers state their risk management program consists of timing the market using their superior asset picking skills. When questioned a little further it becomes apparent that some confusion exists when it comes to hedging and the use of derivatives as a risk management tool.

Risk management analysis can certainly be an intensive process for institutions like banks or insurance companies who tend to have many diverse divisions each with differing mandates and ability to add to the profit center of the parent company. However, not all companies are this complex. While hedge funds and pension plans can have a large asset base, they tend to be straight forward in the determination of risk.

While Value-at-Risk commonly known as VaR goes back many years, it was not until 1994 when J.P. Morgan bank developed its RiskMetrics model that VaR became a staple for financial institutions to measure their risk exposure. In its simplest terms, VaR measures the potential loss of a portfolio over a given time horizon, usually 1 day or 1 week, and determines the likelihood and magnitude of an adverse market movement. Thus, if the VaR on an asset determines a loss of $10 million at a one-week, 95% confidence level, then there is a 5% chance the value of the portfolio will drop more than $10 million over any given week in the year. The drawback of VaR is its inability to determine how much of a loss greater than $10 million will occur. This does not reduce its effectiveness as a critical risk measurement tool.

A sound risk management strategy must be integrated with the derivatives trading department. Now that the Portfolio Manager is aware of the risk he faces, he must implement some form of risk reducing strategy to reduce the likelihood of an unexpected market or economic event from reducing his portfolio value by $10 million or more. 3 options are available.

1. Do nothing - This will not look favourable to investors when their investment suffers a loss. Reputation suffers and a net draw down of assets will likely result;
2. Sell $10 million of the portfolio - Cash is dead money. Not good for returns in the event the market correcting event does not occur for several years. Being overly cautious keeps a good Portfolio Manger from achieving top quartile status;
3. Hedge - This is believed by all of the worlds largest and most sophisticated financial institutions to be the answer. Let's examine how it's done.

Hedging is really very simple, and once you understand the concept, the mechanics will astound you in their simplicity. Let's examine a $100 million equity portfolio that tracks the S&P 500 and a VaR calculation of $10 million. An experienced CTA will recommend the Portfolio Manager sell short $10 million S&P 500 index futures on the Futures exchange. Now if the portfolio losses $10 million the hedge will gain $10 million. The net result is zero loss.

Some critics will argue the market correcting event may not happen for many years and the result of the loss from the hedge will adversely affect returns. While true, there is an answer to this problem which is hotly debated. After all, the whole purpose of implementing a hedge is because of the inability to accurately predict the timing of these significant market correcting events. The answer is the use of technical analysis to assist in the placement of buy and sell orders for your hedge.

Technical analysis has the ability to remove emotional decisions from trading. It also provides the trader with an unbiased view of recent events and trends as well as longer term events and trends. For example, a head and shoulders formation or a double top will indicate an important rally may be coming to an end with an imminent correction to follow. While timing may be in dispute, there is no question a full hedge is warranted. Reaching a major support level might warrant the unwinding of 30% of the hedge with the expectation of a pull back. A rounding bottom formation should indicate the removal of the hedge in its entirety while awaiting the commencement of a major rally.

It is evident that significant market correcting events occur infrequently, in the neighbourhood of every 10 to 15 years. Yet many minor corrections and pullbacks can seriously damage returns, fund performance and reputation.

If you have ever been confronted with upcoming quarterly earnings or a topping formation which has caused you to consider liquidation then you should have first considered a hedge used in conjunction with the evidence from a well thought out analysis of technical indicators. Together they are a powerful tool, but only for those who have the insight to consider asset protection as important as big returns. I guarantee your competition understands and so does your clients who are becoming more sophisticated each year. It's important that you do too.

Dwayne Strocen is a registered Commodity Trading Advisor specializing in analyzing and hedging Market and Operational Risk using exchange traded and OTC derivatives. Website: http://www.genuineCTA.com.


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