Hedging – What Is It, And It’s Uses In Risk Management

Hedging, understanding the benefits of risk management in an enterprise wide solution. Risk management and hedging is a useful tool to reduce market place liability. Here are some tips on its uses.

Second of a two part article
Before I discuss the use of hedging to off-set risk, we need to understand the role and the purpose of hedging. The history of modern futures trading began in Chicago in the early 1800's. Chicago is located at the base of the Great Lakes, close to the farmlands and cattle country of the U.S. Midwest making it a natural center for transportation, distribution and trading of agricultural produce. Gluts and shortages of these products caused chaotic fluctuations in price. This led to the development of a market enabling grain merchants, processors, and agriculture companies to trade in contracts to insulate them from the risk of adverse price change and enable them to hedge.

The first commodity exchange was the creation of the Chicago Board of Trade, CBOT in 1848. Since then, modern derivative products have grown to include more than the agricultural industry. Products include Stock Indices, Interest Rates, Currency, Precious Metals, Oil and Gas, Steel and a host of others. The origins of the commodity and futures exchange was created to support hedging. The role of speculators is beneficial as they add trading volume and important volatility to what would otherwise be a small and illiquid market place.

A bona-fide hedger is someone with an actual product to buy or sell. The hedger establishes an off-setting position on the futures or commodity exchange, thereby instituting a set price for his product. Someone buying a hedge is known as being "Long" or "Taking Delivery". Someone selling a hedge is known as being "Short" or "Making Delivery". These positions known as "Contracts" are legally binding and enforced by the exchange. You can view a complete listing of the worlds different exchanges at: World Exchanges.

Entering your trades either for speculation or hedging is done through your broker or Commodity Trading Advisor. Commodity and Futures exchanges are distinct from Stock Exchanges, although they operate using the same principals. They are regulated by different agencies such as the Commodity Futures Trading Commission who are responsible for regulation of retail brokers in the USA as well as Commodity Trading Advisors who are really Portfolio Managers for derivatives.

Now let's view some real life examples of hedging or mitigation of risk by using exchange traded derivatives.

Example 1: A mutual fund manager has a portfolio valued at $10 million closely resembling the S&P 500 index. The Portfolio Manager believes the economy is worsening with deteriorating corporate returns. The next two to three weeks are reports of quarterly corporate earnings. Until the report exposes which companies have poor earnings, he is concerned of the results from a short term general market correction. Without the privilege of foresight, he is unsure of the magnitude the earnings figures will produce. He now has an exposure to Market Risk.

The manager thinks of his options. The greatest risk is to do nothing, if the market falls as expected, he risks giving up all recent gains. If he sells his portfolio early, he also risks being wrong and missing further rally's. Selling also incurs substantial brokerage fees with additional fees to buy back again later.

Then he realizes a hedge is the best option to mitigate his short term risk. He begins by calling his CTA (Commodity Trading Advisor) and after consultation places an order to sell short the equivalent of $10 million of the S&P 500 index on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange "CME". Now his result is when the market falls as expected, he will off-set any losses in the portfolio with gains from the Index hedge. Should the earnings report be better than expected, and his portfolio continues upward, he will continue making profits.

Two weeks later the fund manager again calls his CTA and closes the hedge by buying back the equivalent number of contracts on the CME. Regardless of the resulting market events, the mutual fund manager was protected during the period of short term volatility. There was no risk to the portfolio.

Example 2: An electronics firm ABC has recently signed an order to deliver $5 million in electronic components of next years model to an overseas retailer located in Europe. These components will be built in 6 months for delivery two months after that. ABC instantly realizes they are exposed to two risks. 1. the rising and volatile price of copper in 6 months may result in losses to the firm. 2. the fluctuation in the currency could easily add to those losses. ABC being a young firm cannot absorb these losses in view of the highly competitive market from others in the field. Losses from this order would result in lay-offs and possibly plant closures.

ABC telephones their CTA and after consultation places an order for two hedges, both for an expiry in 8 months, the date of delivery. Hedge #1 is to buy long $5 million of copper effectively locking in today's price against further price increases. ABC has now eliminated all price risk. The risk of plant closures is greater than the lure of increased profit should copper price fall. After all, ABC is not in the business of speculating on copper prices.

Hedge #2 is to sell short the equivalent of Euro Currency vs US Dollars. Since ABC is effectively accepting EC in payment, a rising US dollar and a weak EC would be detrimental and erode profits further. The result of the hedge is no risk and no surprises to ABC in either copper or currency levels. A risk free transaction and full transparency is the result. In 8 months with the order completed and the customer accepting delivery, ABC notifies the CTA to close the hedge by selling the copper and buying back the Euro Currency contacts.

Many examples exist to demonstrate the mitigation of risk to an institution or financial portfolio. New products are constantly created and available on both over-the counter and exchange traded markets. It would be wise to consult with a qualified Commodity Trading Advisor or broker to discuss the analysis for an on-going risk management solution or a one time only hedge.

Dwayne Strocen is a registered Commodity Trading Advisor specializing in analyzing and hedging Market and Operational Risk using exchange traded and OTC derivatives. Website: http://www.genuineCTA.com.


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Using Technical Analysis To Manage Risk And Maintain Top Quartile Performance

To manage an effective risk management solution requires more than the calculation of VaR. Ultimately a successful risk management program requires the execution of an effective hedge. Technical analysis is a vital element of this strategy.


Recent market reversals brought about by the Sub-Prime mortgage melt down is clearly a significant market correcting event. No matter if you work in the risk department of a large bank with many employees or a small fund of funds as co-manager, you share the same basic concerns regarding the management of your portfolio(s)

1. how to maintain top quartile performance;
2. how to protect assets in times of economic uncertainty;
3. how to expand business reputation to attract new client assets;

It remains common in the financial industry to hear experienced Portfolio Managers state their risk management program consists of timing the market using their superior asset picking skills. When questioned a little further it becomes apparent that some confusion exists when it comes to hedging and the use of derivatives as a risk management tool.

Risk management analysis can certainly be an intensive process for institutions like banks or insurance companies who tend to have many diverse divisions each with differing mandates and ability to add to the profit center of the parent company. However, not all companies are this complex. While hedge funds and pension plans can have a large asset base, they tend to be straight forward in the determination of risk.

While Value-at-Risk commonly known as VaR goes back many years, it was not until 1994 when J.P. Morgan bank developed its RiskMetrics model that VaR became a staple for financial institutions to measure their risk exposure. In its simplest terms, VaR measures the potential loss of a portfolio over a given time horizon, usually 1 day or 1 week, and determines the likelihood and magnitude of an adverse market movement. Thus, if the VaR on an asset determines a loss of $10 million at a one-week, 95% confidence level, then there is a 5% chance the value of the portfolio will drop more than $10 million over any given week in the year. The drawback of VaR is its inability to determine how much of a loss greater than $10 million will occur. This does not reduce its effectiveness as a critical risk measurement tool.

A sound risk management strategy must be integrated with the derivatives trading department. Now that the Portfolio Manager is aware of the risk he faces, he must implement some form of risk reducing strategy to reduce the likelihood of an unexpected market or economic event from reducing his portfolio value by $10 million or more. 3 options are available.

1. Do nothing - This will not look favourable to investors when their investment suffers a loss. Reputation suffers and a net draw down of assets will likely result;
2. Sell $10 million of the portfolio - Cash is dead money. Not good for returns in the event the market correcting event does not occur for several years. Being overly cautious keeps a good Portfolio Manger from achieving top quartile status;
3. Hedge - This is believed by all of the worlds largest and most sophisticated financial institutions to be the answer. Let's examine how it's done.

Hedging is really very simple, and once you understand the concept, the mechanics will astound you in their simplicity. Let's examine a $100 million equity portfolio that tracks the S&P 500 and a VaR calculation of $10 million. An experienced CTA will recommend the Portfolio Manager sell short $10 million S&P 500 index futures on the Futures exchange. Now if the portfolio losses $10 million the hedge will gain $10 million. The net result is zero loss.

Some critics will argue the market correcting event may not happen for many years and the result of the loss from the hedge will adversely affect returns. While true, there is an answer to this problem which is hotly debated. After all, the whole purpose of implementing a hedge is because of the inability to accurately predict the timing of these significant market correcting events. The answer is the use of technical analysis to assist in the placement of buy and sell orders for your hedge.

Technical analysis has the ability to remove emotional decisions from trading. It also provides the trader with an unbiased view of recent events and trends as well as longer term events and trends. For example, a head and shoulders formation or a double top will indicate an important rally may be coming to an end with an imminent correction to follow. While timing may be in dispute, there is no question a full hedge is warranted. Reaching a major support level might warrant the unwinding of 30% of the hedge with the expectation of a pull back. A rounding bottom formation should indicate the removal of the hedge in its entirety while awaiting the commencement of a major rally.

It is evident that significant market correcting events occur infrequently, in the neighbourhood of every 10 to 15 years. Yet many minor corrections and pullbacks can seriously damage returns, fund performance and reputation.

If you have ever been confronted with upcoming quarterly earnings or a topping formation which has caused you to consider liquidation then you should have first considered a hedge used in conjunction with the evidence from a well thought out analysis of technical indicators. Together they are a powerful tool, but only for those who have the insight to consider asset protection as important as big returns. I guarantee your competition understands and so does your clients who are becoming more sophisticated each year. It's important that you do too.

Dwayne Strocen is a registered Commodity Trading Advisor specializing in analyzing and hedging Market and Operational Risk using exchange traded and OTC derivatives. Website: http://www.genuineCTA.com.


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